Poll shows 36 percent support Trump's reelection, 43 percent prefer generic Democrat

Only about one-third of registered voters say they’ll vote to reelect President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in 2020, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill on Tuesday.

The poll found that 36 percent of voters support Trump in 2020, with 25 percent of them saying they’d definitely vote for the president. Meanwhile, 43 percent say they’d vote for an unnamed Democratic candidate in next year’s elections.

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Ten percent of voters say they would vote for an independent or another candidate, and 11 percent are undecided more than a year and half out from the 2020 elections.

Meanwhile, Trump’s approval numbers have remained steady amid the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, with 45 percent who approve of the president’s handling of the job and 55 percent who disapprove.

But the president faces a hurdle on likability. Twenty-nine percent of voters say they like him, while 58 percent dislike Trump.

“Trump’s reelection number remains low, but he is not yet facing a specific candidate,” said Mark Penn, co-director of Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll.

“A lot of voters are shopping for an alternative despite widespread approval of his economic and anti terrorism policies.”

More Democrats are jumping into the race for the 2020 nomination, and of the candidates, former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE leads in terms of voter preference, with 24 percent picking him.

Biden got 23 percent of the vote when 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE was removed. 

Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) is steady in second place. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) is in third, but gets bumped down to fourth when Clinton is polled, with 8 percent of support.

Biden, Sanders and O’Rourke are all considering White House bids and expected to make decisions in the coming weeks.

Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.), Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Warren, Pressley introduce bill to make it a crime for police officers to deny medical care to people in custody Senate Dems press DOJ over coronavirus safety precautions in juvenile detention centers MORE (D-N.Y.) and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) have all recently announced their intentions to seek the presidency. But at the time the poll was conducted, Harris wasn’t officially in the race.

When Clinton’s name isn’t factored in, Harris is right behind O’Rourke at 7 percent. Warren and Gillibrand lag in the low-single digits.

Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardGabbard drops defamation lawsuit against Clinton It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process 125 lawmakers urge Trump administration to support National Guard troops amid pandemic MORE (D-Hawaii) and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, who are also running, are at 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll online survey of 1,540 registered voters was conducted from Jan. 15 to 16.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll. The Hill will be working with Harvard/Harris Poll throughout 2019.

Full poll results will be posted online later this week. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

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